OECD‑FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016‑2025 Special focus: Sub-Saharan Africa.
The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook offers 10-year projections of agriculture production trends for cereals, oilseeds, sugar, cotton, meat and dairy products as well as biofuels. It also looks at the challenge of climate change and the strategic priorities for sub-Saharan Africa’s rapidly-urbanizing population.
“Agriculture is a key sector for the achievement of many goals in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, which aims to end poverty and hunger and promote prosperity and people’s wellbeing, while protecting the environment. This Outlook outlines how agriculture can actively contribute to the attainment of these goals” (The Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025).
The Agricultural Outlook report is a collaborative effort between the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) and FAO to provide supply, demand, trade, and price projections for the major agricultural commodities,biofuels and fish over the next decade (2016-2025).
To present an assessment of medium-term prospects of national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets, the Agricultural Outlook brings together the policy and country expertiseof both organizations and input from collaborating member countries.
A special chapter of the report is focused on the prospects and challenges of the agricultural sector in Sub-Saharan Africa.
“While the outlook for agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa [with more than 950 million people, approximately 13% of the global population] is broadly positive, it could be much improved by more stable policies across the region, by strategic public and privateinvestments, notably in infrastructure, and by suitably adapted research and extension. Such investments could improve access to markets, reduce post-harvest losses, and make needed inputs more widely available” (the Summary of the report).
Access The Agricultural Outlook report chapter-by-chapter:
- Acronyms and abbreviations
- Executive summary
- CHAPTER 1: Overview of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025
- CHAPTER 2: Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa: Prospects and challenges for the next decade
- CHAPTER 3: Commodity snapshots
Commodity chapters (not available in full report)
- Oilseeds and Oilseed Products
- Dairy and Dairy Products
- Fish and Seafood
- Statistical Annex
Sub-Saharan Africa’s net imports of food commodities are anticipated to grow over the next decade, although productivity enhancing investments would mitigate this trend. Food import dependency of resource poor regions, such as North Africa and the Middle East, is projected to intensify providing a huge market for any grain exporters in Africa. In SAA countries grain imports will increase 50% in ten years. Comparatively, North Africa will only see a 15% increase.
Due to extremely high population growth, SSA has a very young population. The World Bank predictes that more than half of young Africans will enter agricultural careers, mostly in the format of small family farms. Inovating ways for youth to participate in agriculture has the potential to greatly reduce poverty and hunger. Success for these young African farmers relies on their education of land access and tenure, access to financial services, access to markets, access to green jobs and involvement in policy dialogue. All of this has the potential to make the agricultural sector more attractive to young people, providing an additional push that may be needed for them to enter the sector
FAO believes that the single greatest factor in improve crop outputs over the next decade will be yield improvements. Currently, it’s not uncommon to see post-harvest crop losses above 50 percent in the region. In the next decade African farmers will gain new metholodgies and technologies to improve their yields. The opportunity for large fertilizers and machinery companies to penetrate the African market is likely to greatly increase as farmers seek new ways to improve their output.
FAO reports that foreign investment and external financial flows into Africa have quadrupled since 2000. These flows are expected to increase two times further in the next decade. The report finds that while the outlook for agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa is broadly positive, it could be much improved by improvements in government policies across the region, by an increase in strategic public and private investments (especially in infrastructure) and by suitably adapted research and extension. Such investments could improve access to markets, reduce post-harvest losses, and make much needed inputs more widely available.
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